Under The Surface Investing

AI's Fragile Safety Line—One Step Away From Disaster

The AI boom of 2025 is not just another tech craze—it’s an industrial and financial bubble unfolding in real time. Like the 1896 British bicycle mania…

Oct 12 • 

John

September 2025

When Finance Isn’t Enough: Swarms, Nautiluses, and Stories

The author reflects on their investing journey, emphasizing the value of broad exploration beyond traditional methods, advocating for diverse mental…

Sep 3 • 

John

July 2025

Nothing Beats a Jet2 Holiday — It's More than a Meme

For the past several months, the catchy tune "darling take my hand...

Jul 29 • 

John

Can UnitedHealth Weather the Storm? Behind the Payvider Model and Its Moat

“We often ask, 'Where are the clouds today?' These cloud can obscure the long-term, extraordinary parts of a business."

Jul 13 • 

John

From PC Retailer to ERP: The Compounder Everyone Missed

"The best investments tend to be simple, easily understood, and overlooked by others." — Seth Klarman

Jul 4 • 

John

June 2025

Medpace - A CRO That Wins by Saying No

"Invert, always invert" - Charlie Munger

Jun 23 • 

John

Rebuilding Reality with Agent-Based Models

Introduction

Jun 15 • 

John

False Positives and Real Questions: What the Short on Grail Gets Right (and Wrong)

Background: Earlier this month, Ningi Research released a short report on Grail (GRAL), calling into question just about everything: Galleri’s clinical…

Jun 15 • 

John

SBC Medical - Beautiful Profits, Ugly Governance

Info This memo was initially written around May 21st, 2025

Jun 1 • 

John

May 2025

Costamare Bulkers - A Boat Load of Special Situations Sailing Under the Radar

Info This memo was initially written around May 29th, 2025

May 29 • 

John

Kaspi.kz - the Super App that No One Talks About

Kaspi (KSPI) is a Kazakh super app providing fintech, payments, and e-commerce services. With 14 million users, it captures around 70% of Kazakhstan's…

May 27 • 

John

Dino Polska - the Walmart of Eastern Europe?

Info This memo was initially written around January 31st, 2025

May 27 • 

John