Under The Surface Investing

Five Rules for Finding Best-in-Class AI Enterprise Software

A practical framework for identifying durable, defensible AI enterprise software

Nov 28 • John

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Can AI Agents Mimic a Superforecasting Team?

Exploring whether AI agents can recreate the cognitive diversity and decentralization that makes great forecasters so effective.

Nov 17 • John

1

New Oriental: Even the worst disasters shall pass away

After the 2021 regulatory catastrophe, New Oriental emerged with a strong brand, bulletproof balance sheet, and rising market share. Its stock, however…

Nov 13 • John

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October 2025

AI's Fragile Safety Line—One Step Away From Disaster

The AI boom of 2025 is not just another tech craze—it’s an industrial and financial bubble unfolding in real time. Like the 1896 British bicycle mania…

Oct 12 • John

September 2025

When Finance Isn’t Enough: Swarms, Nautiluses, and Stories

The author reflects on their investing journey, emphasizing the value of broad exploration beyond traditional methods, advocating for diverse mental…

Sep 3 • John

July 2025

Nothing Beats a Jet2 Holiday — It's More than a Meme

For the past several months, the catchy tune "darling take my hand...

Jul 29 • John

Can UnitedHealth Weather the Storm? Behind the Payvider Model and Its Moat

“We often ask, 'Where are the clouds today?' These cloud can obscure the long-term, extraordinary parts of a business."

Jul 13 • John

From PC Retailer to ERP: The Compounder Everyone Missed

The best investments tend to be simple, easily understood, and overlooked by others.

Jul 4 • John

June 2025

Medpace - A CRO That Wins by Saying No

"Invert, always invert" - Charlie Munger

Jun 23 • John

Rebuilding Reality with Agent-Based Models

Agent-based modeling (ABM) has become an unexpectedly clarifying lens for how I think about complex adaptive systems.

Jun 15 • John

False Positives and Real Questions: What the Short on Grail Gets Right (and Wrong)

Background: Earlier this month, Ningi Research released a short report on Grail (GRAL), calling into question just about everything: Galleri’s clinical…

Jun 15 • John

SBC Medical - Beautiful Profits, Ugly Governance

Info This memo was initially written around May 21st, 2025

Jun 1 • John